Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: Evaluating the $20 million Demand

Basketball is a simple game. The team that scores more points wins. However, underlying this simplicity is a beautiful complexity of statistics, formulas, spatial tracking, and algorithms. This mountain of data can be analyzed to project future outcomes. When James Naismith first invented the game in 1891, he had no idea how rooted in science and number it would become. I too am guilty of that same naivety. 

When I began this blog, it was purely focused on the legal side of basketball. Nothing is wrong with this in and of itself. I studied the law for three years at law school, worked at law firms, and took the Bar Exam (the results of which come out soon, fingers crossed), so I know my lane. However, I have come to the realization that to be an effective asset and advocate of the game, you have to understand it. It's one thing to understand the system, but it's another when you understand the subject. Just like politics, it is good to know the process, but even better to know both the process and the ideas. In short, while the procedural (CBA) component is important, the substantive (players) component is equally important. The two half are different, but complement each other to make a complete picture.

I could write as much as I want about the salary cap, but in reality the cap does not work in a vacuum. You have to be able to wear two hats. You have to be able to understand basketball players by examining the data, and then understand how that data implicates the salary cap. There is a relationship that needs to be explored here. You have cap guys and scout guys. This blog, from here on out, will be devoted to building the bridge between the fields. By collapsing that gap, I think we can better understand NBA moves in the wider context of the CBA. Every player and team is in a contract situation. The key to efficiently managing those situations is by gaining a broader and more in depth understanding of the statistical landscape. It is a tough endeavor, and I expect to crawl at first, however, with time, my understanding of player analytics and how it implicates the cap situation will evolve into a full fledged art. 

My first attempt will tackle this interesting tweet I saw this evening:

KCP's Cap Situation

KCP was selected as the 8th overall pick by the Detroit Pistons in 2013 NBA Draft. The rookie scale contract for that year was as follows:

2013-2014 Salary	2014-2015 Salary	2015-2016 Option Salary	2016-2017 Option: Percentage increase over 3rd year Salary	2017-2018 Option: Percentage increase over 4th year Salary
$2,210,900	$2,310,400	$2,409,800	27.2%	34.8%

KCP is currently in the fourth year of his career, and is scheduled to make $3,678,319 this season. You may have noticed that a 27.2% increase over $2,409,800 is actually $3,065,266. Why the extra $613,053?  

• An exception in the CBA allowed this. If a team is over the salary cap, like the Pistons were in the Summer of 2013 when it signed players like Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings, then it can avail itself of the Rookie Exception, which allows it to sign a first round draft pick for up to 120% of his Rookie Salary Scale amount. This explains why his current salary is higher than it would be at the normal rookie scale salary amount . This was the only way the team could sign him. A team can only sign players to the extent is has salary cap room, but there are 11 exceptions that allow a team to exceed the cap limit, the rookie exception being one. 

This being the situation, KCP is looking for an extension in his contract that would be north of $20 million a year. There are a few ways this can go. 

• The Pistons can submit to him a qualifying offer, which would be $4,958,374 for the 2017-2018 season. This makes him a restricted free agent, meaning that the Pistons would have the chance to match any offer given by another team. Of course, KCP may sign the submitted offer if he so chooses, but is under no obligation to do so. The Pistons have until June 30th of next Summer to submit this offer. 

• The Pistons could let him be an unrestricted free agent by not submitting the offer, giving KCP the freedom to sign with any NBA team. 

• The other situation is the extension option. For a player like KCP, this would be a rookie scale extension. The window for this extension is from July 12, 2016 to October 31, 2016. 

• Under this rookie scale extension, 4 new years may be added to the player's existing contract (5 total including the final rookie year) and it may be in an amount up to the maximum player salary, which is 25% of the Cap. Subsequent salary increases may not exceed 7.5% each year, starting in the first year of the extension. KCP may be a Designated Player Rookie Scale Extension, which would allow for an extra year on the extension. It must provide for the maximum salary (at least 25% of the salary cap) and full 7.5% each year starting in the first year of the extension. An NBA team is only allowed one of these.
• It is worth noting, a rookie may be able to get 30% as the Max, but only if he meets certain criteria. KCP has failed to meet that criteria, including either All Star appearances, voted an MVP, or voted on All-NBA teams. This would be perfect for a player like Anthony Davis. 

If KCP signed this extension, here is what it would look like: (He gets the greater of 105% of his salary in the last year of his current contract or 25% of the salary cap beginning in the 2018-2019 NBA season. The greater salary is of course  the 25%. This contract contemplates steady 7.5% increases, and that the cap will be 107 million in the 2018-2019 NBA season. It also concludes that the Pistons do not give him the full 25%, but something closer to 19%). 

KCP PROPOSED CONTRACT

The last 4 years on the chart above represent the extension with the appropriate 7.5% increases. This is an approximation, but should provide a good barometer for determining what KCP is looking for. 

This would severely effect Detroit's cap situation, but as I have said in my prologue, the financials must be looked at in the context of his on-court performance. With that said, lets look at the numbers. 

KCP's Statistics

KCP is young. He is 23.5 and entering his fourth season in the NBA, which is 3 years younger than the average NBA player. It is safe to assume he hasn't peaked or hit his prime. The general consensus around the NBA is that most players tend to hit their peak years from 26-30. This is supported by the fact that since the 2006-2007 season, every MVP has been under the age of 30 (http://cavaliers.247sports.com/Gallery/Ranking-the-average-age-of-all-30-NBA-rosters-47823663). 

He still has more growth ahead of him, from both a physical and intellect standpoint. Age provides good context, however, a player will usually begin to separate himself from the rest of the draft class by his third or fourth season. If KCP is going to be a consistent NBA All-Star, there is a high chance we would have already known this by now, or at least this season. 

I went back through the archives of the past 8 NBA drafts (2005 to 2012) to review 20 players that were selected in the top 10 of the Draft. Each of these players would be considered franchise players, or could at the very least easily justify a 20 million dollar a year contract. I went back and reviewed players the following players:

The data shows that all of those players were averaging at 19.75 points per game in their 3rd NBA season. If KCP were to be on this list of third year scoring, then he would be 19th out of 21. This past season he was averaging 14.5 points per game at approximately 36 minutes per night. Also, his shooting percentage was at 42% last season, slightly lower than a lot of the other players on this list above. The two players who scored below him were Gordon Hayward and Al Horford, granted Horford was also averaging 9 rebounds a game. 

Given this information, it appears KCP is not on track to be an All-Star type player. However, he could be something like a Gordon Hayward, which is still a good player. Gordon is currently on a 4 year 64 million dollar deal, which is something that is more likely to be closer to what KCP could get on the open market, at least before the salary cap spike. 

Lets take a closer look at his numbers, determine his value, and then compare him to other shooting guards in the league. This comparative model should help us determine a good value for him.

Shooting Ability:

• FG% = 42%
• 3P% = 30.9%
• eFG% = 47.9% (This is higher because it accounts for the fact that a 3 point shot is more difficult than a 2 point shot) 

KCP shoots the 3 well from the left corner, at a rate of 40.3%, which is above the League 3 point average of 35.4%. However, the league average for both the FG% and eFG% was 45.2 and 50.2% last season, respectively. Among shooting guards last season, he ranked 20th in FG%, and tied for 39th out of 43 qualified shooting guards when it came to 3P%. He was 19th on the eFG% rating. This corroborates the fact the he struggles shooting from long range (Much like Dwayne Wade who has the lowest eFG% of all shooting guards (45.9%)). Thus, KCP has some work to do when it comes to shooting the ball. He is a below average shooter. 

Scoring Ability:

• He scored 14.5 ppg last season, which tied for the 13th spot among all shooting guards in the League. 
• Has the ability to take players off the dribble, but the clear majority of his shots are catch and shoot, with a percentage clip of 42. 
• He finished in the restricted area at a rate of 60.3% last season, which was below last season's League average of 62.4%.

Play Making Abilities and Defensive Motor:

• He averaged 1.8 assists per game last season, which was about average for a shooting guard. Not likely a guy you should look to be a distributor like some other players, such as James Harden, Jimmy Butler, or Nicolas Batum. 
• As for his defense, this has generally been considered his strong suit. He ranked in the top 10 of all shooting guards last season for steals and was above average for rebounds. 
• According to the NBA's defensive stats, opponents shot 1.7% worse than their average last season when being defended by KCP, and 2.6% worse on three-point attempts. 
• Reggie Jackson greatly complemented KCP's defense saying, “Phenomenal. That kid is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league—KCP locks up.”
• Last season KCP held some of the Leagues greater scorers to low shooting %:
• Stephen Curry (39%)
• Russell Westbrook (36%)
• James Harden (41% in two games)
• Dwyane Wade (30% in two games)
• Paul George (35% in three games).
• Here is a video showing his defensive prowess. Make no mistake about it. Defense is this kids calling card. 

This begs one question, however, do you want your shooting guard to be your best defender? In todays guard heavy League where the open floor and three point shooting dominates, I would prefer my shooting guard to have better offensive abilities than defensive abilities. As I said earlier, basketball is a simple game and at the end of the day, you have to SCORE more points than the other team. Defense is all about will power and it is ok to have not so great perimeter defenders if you have a defensive minded front court. Ideally, you want a player to have both defensive and offensive skill, but I would always prefer to have offensive production with respect to that position. At the end of the day, you have to put pressure on the other team's defense in order to open up the game for yourself and your teammates. 

On the aggregate, KCP is an above average perimeter defender, in the top 10 of all shooting guards, but is a below average offensive player. Is there a way to ascribe a value to these statistics?

The Statistics and the Dollars

• He is currently 45th in terms of salary for all shooting guards, making $3,678,319 in the 2016-2017 NBA season. No doubt he will garnish more money than this, either by way of the rookie scale extension or by testing free agency. 

• To appropriately have a good value for KCP, we have to compare his current stats to other shooting guards in the League. The closer the match we can find in terms of statistics, then the more confidence we can have in an extending an appropriate offer. Of course, this is somewhat difficult to do considering the NBA is a game of chess. This deal is impacted by several other unknowns. With that said, lets try to find other shooting guards with comparable numbers and  see if we can set a barometer for his salary expectations. 

• If KCP gets the contract he is seeking, that would make him the 6th highest paid shooting guard in the league. He would be paid more per year on average than Jimmy Butler, Klay Thompson, Evan Fournier, and JR Smith. All of these players, with the exception of Smith, averaged more ppg last year, and all of them had a higher eFG%. Granted some of these players are older than him, but Evan Fournier only by a year. Even the remaining players had better numbers than KCP did when they were 23, all with the exception of Butler, who averaged less ppg.  However, Butler was a sophomore in the League that year, played 10 less minutes a game than KCP did this last season, and all of his shooting percentages were greater than KCP's  (46.7 FG%, 38.1 3P%, and 50.6 eFG%). 

The Conclusion

The statistics indicate that KCP is a ring below these players, and since that is the case, I would not pay him $20 million a year. 

Players that have stats that emulate more of what KCP can do are perhaps Rodney Hood, Victor Oladipo, Kent Bazemore and Wes Matthews. These guys are good players, but not definitive all-stars. Wes Matthews is not making $20 million a year, and players like Hood and Oladipo will soon find themselves in similar situations with contract extensions. Bazemore is a great role player making $17.5 million a year on a 4 year deal. Matthews is currently making $17.5 million a year, and I would expect KCP to ultimately receive a contract anywhere between $15 to $17 million a year. This seems to be the standard for guys who prove to be good young players, but still have yet to separate themselves to that next level. These type of players are the players like Tobias Harris, Greg Monroe, and Harrison Barnes. They are good players. But a collection of them all on one team, without a definitive all-star, could very well keep you a middle of the road play-off team. In my opinion, the analysis of KCP puts him in that class. I would be shocked if there was an extension agreed to by October 31st. Putting on my GM hat, I let the October 31st deadline pass without offering an extension, evaluate his fourth year numbers (As I said earlier, I give players 3 - 4 years to show me what they have), submit the qualifying offer, and see where other GM's place his market value. To reiterate, I would not go above $15 to $17 million a year.

At the end of the day, every player wants $20 million, irrespective of whether they truly believe they can get it. This is just the first step of the negotiation dance. Savvy GMs will always find the truth behind the numbers. Of course all of this analysis really depends on the current roster situation for the Pistons. They may have other guys they want to pay in the future, like Stanley Johnson, Reggie Jackson, and Tobias Harris. Only time will tell with a lot of these decisions. It is never a precise science in predicting how good a player will be because GMs are betting on human beings, but you do the best you can. With that said, I hope you have a better understanding of KCP and his cap situation.